Saturday, April 16, 2011

NBA Playoffs Preview

Well it's finally here, the NBA Playoffs. What makes this so exciting? Every night, there is basketball of the highest quality. The quality of the games is what separates the NBA Playoffs from the NCAA Tournament. There are 16 teams all trying for that elusive title as NBA Champions. True, there aren't too many upsets, but for anybody who just likes the game itself, you can't beat this. Because each series is a best of 7 games, you cannot surprise your opponent to move on to the next round. To win, you actually have to adjust and force your will upon the other team. There are plenty of story-lines, and the best way to digest them all is to simply watch the games.

My predictions for the 1st Round.

Bulls vs Pacers
Although I think the Pacers can put up a good fight, the Bulls have Derrick Rose, and he seems unstoppable right now. These teams are in the same division so they are familiar with each other, which I think will hopefully make the games more intense and better. My pick: Bulls in 5 games.

Spurs vs Grizzlies
The injury to Manu Ginobili makes this a little less sure for the Spurs. San Antonio is a very experienced, veteran team, but I think they are one significant injury to one of their main 3 players from being an easy team to defeat. The Grizzlies are a hot, young team with little playoff experience. Overall, I think the Spurs experience will put them over the top. My pick: Spurs in 6 games.

Heat vs 76ers
This is what everybody has been waiting for: to see what the Heat can do in the playoffs. What very few people are talking about is how good the 76ers actually are. One of the most surprising teams of this year, the 76ers are a tough out for any team. But I think the Heat have mostly figured out how to work together and make this team run. Their talent and experience will be too much for the young 76ers. My pick: Heat in 4 games.

Lakers vs Hornets
The defending champion Lakers certainly have the experience and talent to make them contenders for the championship again this year. If healthy, they are one of the deepest teams in the league. The Hornets lost their 2nd best player (David West) to injury about a month ago, which severely weakens them. However, the Hornets do have Chris Paul, who I think will be able to win one game himself. But just one. My pick: Lakers in 5 games.

Celtics vs Knicks
One of the most anticipated series of the 1st round, these two teams do not lack star power. Both teams have been mediocre since making an in-season trade in February. The Celtics went to the finals last year and won it all 3 years ago. The Knicks haven't been in the playoffs in a while, and their stars have little playoff success. But I still think these teams match up well if Shaq is out with injuries for the Celtics. My pick: Celtics in 7 games.

Mavs vs Blazers
Most people are picking this for their 1st round upset. The Mavs have been struggling lately and the Blazers have been playing well since they traded for Gerald Wallace. The Mavs also have little playoff success in the past decade and the Blazers seem to match up well with them. Dirk Nowitzki can win at least 2 games by himself for the Mavs and I don't know if the Blazers have anybody like that. My pick: Mavs in 7 games.

Magic vs Hawks
Last year the Magic swept the Hawks in the 2nd round. This season the Hawks have won 3 of 4 games against the Magic. So which one of these will hold true? I think neither will happen again. The Magic are a very different team with their big trades from this year, and I think the Hawks are better than last year, although they are less talked about. However, I think Dwight Howard muscles his way past the Hawks. My pick: Magic in 6 games.

Thunder vs Nuggets
Two fun teams to watch. The Thunder were thought to be favorites coming into the season, but then fell out of popularity as they struggled at the start of the year. The Nuggets have been greatly improved since trading Carmelo Anthony to the Knicks in February. Both teams are young and athletic. But the Thunder are too talented to let this series get away. My pick: Thunder in 5 games.

So there you have it, I went with all favorites which I know is no fun, but that's OK. The real fun is watching all the games. So sit back, relax, and enjoy the great games going on.

Monday, April 11, 2011

I've been copied...or something like that

While I am pretty sure he wasn't actually copying me, Sports Illustrated's Ian Thomsen recently wrote an articled titled Payroll breakdowns: Which teams get the most for their money?  He basically did the same thing I did all season, except he only did it once this year. Clearly he came up with the same information I did: that the Chicago Bulls were the best value team this year, and that they are the only team with a cost-per-win of under $1 million. He writes in the first paragraph that this is an annual review, so apparently he has done it before, but I had never seen it before. Anyways, it's nice to know that I can do what professional NBA writers do.

Monday, April 4, 2011

Jerry Sloan for NBA Coach of the Year?

As we near the end of the NBA's regular season, it is time to start thinking of season awards. My vote for Coach of the Year: former Utah Jazz coach, Jerry Sloan. This award usually goes to a coach who helped his team to a winning record and a playoff berth. Jerry Sloan did neither. Instead, he abruptly retired in the middle of the season this last February. So why do I think he should get it this year? Here is why:
  • NBA commissioner David Stern called Sloan "one of the greatest and most respected coaches in NBA history." 
  • Sloan had a career regular-season win–loss record of 1,221–803, placing him third all-time in NBA wins. Sloan was only the fifth coach in NBA history to reach the 1,000 victory milestone, and he is the only coach in NBA history to record 1,000 wins with one club (the Utah Jazz). 
  • He also coached for one team longer than anyone in NBA history. The 2009–10 season was his 22nd season (and 21st full season) as coach of the Jazz. 
  • Sloan coached the Jazz to 15 consecutive playoff appearances from 1989–2003.
  • He is one of only three coaches in NBA history with 15-plus consecutive seasons with a winning record (Pat Riley and Phil Jackson are the others). 
  • He led Utah to the NBA Finals in 1997 and 1998, but lost to the Chicago Bulls both times.
  • And through all of those great seasons and accomplishments, he never won the Coach of the Year award.
He should get it this year as a type of lifetime achievement award. Because he coached for the 1st half of the season, he should be eligible for the award. .

The guy is also kind of a bad-ass. In 1976, Sloan took the head coaching position at the University of Evansville, but then withdrew after just 5 days. That same season the Evansville basketball team as well as coaches were killed in a plane crash at Evansville Airport. Also, according to this story on Yahoo! Sloan saves his friends lives with his gun.

Jerry Sloan has been an NBA icon since the 1960's. Now that he is retired, the fact that he never won the COY award is embarrassing for the NBA. I guess when you have been that successful for so long, people just expect you to be good, so they are never as impressed as they would be by someone who has a surprising good season. So for the 2010-2011 NBA season, my vote (if I actually had one) goes to Jerry Sloan.

Friday, April 1, 2011

The Consistency of the Spurs

ESPN runs a daily NBA update called the Daily Dime. It is full of the latest stories, tidbits, and stats from the previous night's NBA action. In this morning's edition of the Daily Dime, I found something that I find to be simply incredible about the Spurs.

Last night, the Celtics defeated the Spurs 107-97, extending San Antonio's losing streak to five games (in the first 4 losses, Tim Duncan was out with an injury). It's the first time since Duncan joined the team before the start of the 1997-98 season that the Spurs have lost five or more consecutive regular-season games. San Antonio had been the only team in the league without at least one five-game losing streak over those 14 seasons. In fact, every other NBA team has had no fewer than six separate five-game losing streaks over that span. Prior to Thursday night, the Spurs' last five-game losing streak came in April 1997, when they lost their last six games of the 1996-97 season, just prior to drafting Duncan.
The Spurs' just-concluded span of 1,112 games without losing five in a row was the second-longest such streak in NBA history. The record is held by the Celtics, who went 1,412 games without losing five straight games from 1950 to 1969.
 This just goes to show how good the Spurs and Tim Duncan have been over the past 14 years. It is a stat that boggles the mind.

Also in the Daily Dime was this little story, shared by NBA rookie, All-Star, fan-favorite Blake Griffin on his Twitter page.
Random lady in phoenix: "you're tall you should play basketball" Me: "Ehh I dunno" lady: "no really!" me: "ok I guess I'll give it a try"
I think this is hilarious. 

Monday, March 28, 2011

Quick Link

With March Madness rolling along, there isn't much NBA news. I also have been busy so I haven't gotten a new Best Value rankings out in a bit. But I came across this article by Ian Thomsen of Sports Illustrated talking about what NBA scouts look out for during the NCAA Tournament, and I thought it was interesting. I like to watch college basketball also so I can get a feel for who the players going into the draft are. I like to know the rookies before they become rookies. So here it is, it is a pretty quick read too.

NBA scouts put prospects' March performances into context.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

I Was Wrong

OK, I will admit it, sometimes I have been wrong about how good or bad NBA players would become. Nobody really knows on draft day who will pan out as a good player and who won't. Everybody tries to get the best players they can, but even the professionals are wrong a lot of the time. I specifically am talking about Tyler Hansbrough, the 2nd year forward for the Indiana Pacers.

Last Sunday, in New York to face the Knicks, he scored a career high 29 points. Last night, also against the Knicks but in Indianapolis, he topped that by setting a new career high of 30 points.  He has scored at least 20 points in 5 straight games, the most by any Pacers player this year.

I'm not saying that he is the new star of the team, but what I am saying is that I, like most analysts, thought he would never be anything more than a role player off the bench. I thought his game would not translate to the pro game from college because he relied so much on his physicality at the University of North Carolina and he is smaller than most NBA power forwards. I figured he would have a career much like Jeff Foster, a descent player for 11 years with the Pacers. He does the dirty work down low getting rebounds and putbacks for his points, but doesn't create his own shot very often. Yes, I knew Hansbrough had more offense, but I did not think it was that much better than Foster. But Hansbrough has proved to everyone that his mid-range jump shot is above-average and when he gets the ball he is usually looking to score. He looks for contact down low so he can get to the free-throw line. In fact, he is 3rd on the team in free-throws attempted and free-throw percentage despite being 7th on the team in minutes played this year. He is also 3rd on the team in field-goal percentage, hitting about 46% of his shots. He is also 3rd on the team in offensive rebounds, which allows him to get a lot of put-backs, which is what I thought most of his game would consist of.

So yes, I am wrong about some players (I also thought Roy Hibbert was a bad pick for the Pacers, and that Emeka Okafor would be better than Dwight Howard), but so is everybody else. All I can do is continue to watch, and see what happens, but that will not keep me from trying to figure out the draft.

Monday, March 14, 2011

Bracket Contest

Ok, I did create a Bracket group on Yahoo! Anyone can join, here is the info you need.

http://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/t1/register/joinprivategroup_assign_team?GID=121463&P=flagrantfoul

Click on that link. The group's name is Flagrant Foul. The ID# is 121463. And the password is flagrantfoul

So join if you want, I don't know if there is a limit to how many people can join, so sign up quickly. The first 4 games start on Tuesday the 14th.

I don't have any prizes to give away, so this is just for bragging rights.

Saturday, March 12, 2011

Best Value Teams pt. 12

Not a lot of change in this week's rankings, nobody moved more than 4 spots. So I don't have much to say about it this week. Just check it out for yourself.

Biggest improvement: Blazers, Knicks, Clippers (+3)

Biggest decline: Mavs (-4)

Rank-Team-Projected Wins-Cost per Win-(Last rankings)
1. Bulls - 59 - 931,278.25 (1)
2. Spurs - 67 - 1,036,701.97 (2)
3. Thunder - 53 - 1,084,509.40 (3)
4. Heat - 55 - 1,196,497.29 (4)
5. Nuggets - 48 - $1,372,310.27 (6)
6. Celtics - 60 - $1,381,787.47 (5)
7. Hornets - 47 - $1,456,070.34 (9)
8. Blazers - 47 - $1,492,461.49 (11)
9. Hawks - 47 - $1,507,985.13 (7)
10. Knicks - 44 - $1,513,115.68 (13)
11. Suns - 43 - $1,528,810.09 (10)
12. Mavs - 59 - $1,530,332.76 (8)
13. Grizzlies - 45 - $1,549,634.71 (12)
14. Lakers - 57 - $1,606,485.25 (14)
15. 76ers - 43 - $1,613,028.98 (15)
16. Clippers - 31 - $1,678,238.26 (19)
17. Magic - 51 - $1,747,835.22 (16)
18. Jazz - 42 - $1,760,940.07 (17)
19. Rockets - 41 - $1,770,429.37 (20)
20. Warriors - 37 - $1,816,014.32 (21)
21. Pacers - 34 - $1,893,188.85 (18)
22. Bobcats - 34 - $1,959,096.29 (22)
23. Bucks - 33 - $2,110,458.55 (24)
24. Nets - 27 - $2,188,463.70 (26)
25. Pistons - 29 - $2,273,028.31 (25)
26. Kings - 19 - $2,317,399.79 (23)
27. T-Wolves - 21 - $2,530,493.43 (27)
28. Wizards - 21 - $2,829,680.05 (28)
29. Raptors - 23 - $3,021,949.78 (29)
30. Cavs - 15 - $3,550,934.33 (30)

Friday, March 11, 2011

March Madness

OK, let's go ahead and talk about the elephant in the room. College basketball has one thing that is clearly better than the NBA: March Madness. During this time of year, even I put the NBA on the back-burner so I can watch a lot of college ball. Let's break down the reasons for this.

One of the big reasons why March Madness has a hold on the country is because of the number of teams involved. If you are a Division 1 team, you are involved in it, even if it isn't the NCAA Tournament. Every conference tournament champion (or regular season champ if there is no conference tourney) gets to go to the "big dance" that is the NCAA tournament. This gives everybody at least an outside shot at making it. So at the beginning of March, every fan in America can believe they have a chance to make it. Eventually it gets widdled down to 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament. Lots of teams are on the "bubble" to make it in as an at-large bid, meaning they didn't win their conference but could still get selected. So being on the bubble and waiting nervously to see if your team made it during selection Sunday (this Sunday) adds to the excitement.

Another big reason for the craziness and excitement of March Madness is the one-and-done formula mixed with quick back-to-back games. Win or go home. 68 teams start the tourney, only 32 make it to Saturday or Sunday of the first week, and only 16 make it to the next week. So enormous pressure is on each and every team. One mistake can cost you your season. This also allows for "Cinderellas" or underdogs to advance past where most people think they should. If a team gets on a hot streak, they can go far and be the little school that shocks the world. Americans love to root for the underdog, so even if their particular team is out of the tourney already, they can cheer for upsets still to make things interesting.

One more quick reason for March Madness success is the timing of it all. It all fits into about a one-month window where there is very little other sports going on. The NBA is in the regular season, and baseball is in pre-season spring training. But football is in the offseason and nobody cares about hockey or soccer.

And finally, I think the most important reason why March Madness reigns supreme during this time of year is gambling. Everybody can fill out a bracket and nobody is ever perfect on it. Even if you don't bet money, you still fill out a bracket just for bragging rights. But many people have office pools, or similar bets with friends to see who can guess the best. Also, many websites have contests that give away prizes for the winners. And of course, actual gambling is huge as usual.

If I had more followers I would try to set up a group on yahoo or something so we could all put our brackets in and see who does the best, but I dont' think that will happen this year. But I still hope you fill out a bracket on your own, sit back, and enjoy the games. BOILER UP!!

Saturday, March 5, 2011

Best Value Teams pt. 11

After the last couple weeks of trades and free agent signings, a lot has changed in the world of NBA team salaries. Only 5 teams did not have any change to their salaries: Lakers, Magic, 76ers, Pistons, and Pacers.

There were many small changes, but I think only four big changes that need to be identified. The Mavs just signed free agent Corey Brewer to a 3 year contract. This bumps their payroll up $2.5 mil, which makes them the 2nd highest payroll in the league, moving ahead of Orlando and only trailing the Lakers. The Carmelo trade makes up the last 3 big changes. As I said last week, the Nuggets saved around $25 mil from the trade, including luxury taxes. It saved them about $18 mil on their payroll for this season, while costing the Knicks $8.5 mil and the T-Wolves around $8.2 mil. So that one trade has changed the rankings significantly.

Only 6 teams, Bulls, Spurs, Kings, Wizards, Raptors, and Cavs, hold the same spot in the rankings as they did in the last one.

For only the 2nd time, and the 1st since early December, there is no team with a losing record ahead of a team with a winning record in the rankings. This proves that it is better to spend a little more money and win, than try to save money and lose.

Biggest improvement: Nuggets (+14)
Biggest decline: Knicks (-8), Warriors (-7)

Rank-Team-Projected Wins-Cost per Win-(Last rankings)
1. Bulls - 57 - 963,954.68 (1)
2. Spurs - 68 - $1,021,456.35 (2)
3. Thunder - 52 - $1,105,365.35 (4)
4. Heat - 57 - $1,154,541.93 (3)
5. Celtics - 62 - $1,337,213.68 (7)
6. Nuggets - 48 - $1,372,310.27 (20)
7. Hawks - 49 - $1,446,434.71 (6)
8. Mavs - 61 - $1,480,157.92 (10)
9. Hornets - 46 - $1,487,724.04 (8)
10. Suns - 44 - $1,494,064.41 (12)
11. Blazers - 46 - $1,524,906.30 (9)
12. Grizzlies - 44 - $1,584,853.68 (11)
13. Knicks - 42 - $1,585,168.81 (5)
14. Lakers - 57 - $1,606,485.25 (13)
15. 76ers - 42 - $1,651,434.43 (18)
16. Magic - 52 - $1,714,223.00 (17)
17. Jazz - 42 - $1,760,940.07 (15)
18. Pacers - 36 - $1,788,011.69 (19)
19. Clippers - 29 - $1,793,978.83 (16)
20. Rockets - 40 - $1,814,690.10 (22)
21. Warriors - 36 - $1,866,459.17 (14)
22. Bobcats - 35 - $1,903,122.11 (21)
23. Kings - 21 - $2,096,695.05 (23)
24. Bucks - 31 - $2,246,617.16 (25)
25. Pistons - 29 - $2,273,028.31 (24)
26. Nets - 24 - $2,462,021.67 (27)
27. T-Wolves - 19 - $2,796,861.16 (26)
28. Wizards - 20 - $2,971,164.05 (28)
29. Raptors - 22 - $3,157,311.14 (29)
30. Cavs - 16 - $3,329,000.94 (30)